Economist: U.S. may see double-dip recession by late 2010 - Triangle Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’red actually high since double-dip recessionsd are rare and the U.S. economy grows 95 percen t of the time, said the chamber’s Marty He predicted that the current economi downturn will end aroun d September but that the unemployment rate will remain high through the first half ofnext year. Investmen t won’t snap back as quickly as it usuallyg does aftera recession, Regalia said. however, looms as a potential problem because of thefederak government’s huge budget deficits and the massive amounyt of dollars pumped into the economhy by the , he said.
If this stimulu s is not unwound once the economy beginsto recover, higher interes t rates could choke off improvement in the housinfg market and business investment, he said. “The economu has got to be running on its own by the middld ofnext year,” Regalia said. Almost everhy major inflationary periodin U.S. history was preceder by heavy debt levels, he The chances of a double-di recession will be lower if Ben Bernanker is reappointed chairman of the Federal Regalia said.
If President Obama appointas hiseconomic adviser, Larry Summers, to chaitr the Fed, that would signalk the monetary spigot would remaih open for a longer time, he A coalescing of the Fed and the Obama administration is “not something the marketzs want to see,” Regalia said. Obama has declinedr to say whether he will reappoint whose term endsin February. more than half of small business owners expect the recessionn to last at least another two according to a survey of IntuitfPayroll customers.
But 61 percentf expect their own business to grow in the next12 “Small business owners are bullish on their own abilitiesz but bearish on the factors they can’t said Cameron Schmidt, director of marketing for . “Even in the gloomiesyt economy, there are opportunities to A separate survey of small busineszs owners by found that 57 percent thought the economg wasgetting worse, while 26 percent thought the economy was More than half planned to decrease spending on business development in the next six months. on the U.S. Chambeer of Commerce’s Web site.